Trickle Down

No economics textbook contains a trickle-down economics theory, but numerous historians and innumerable politicians and journalists say it never worked.  Politicians especially use it to divert attention from their policies that do not favor job creation or economic wellbeing.

Trickle-down theory supposedly provides tax cuts favoring the rich in hopes the additional money will stimulate the economy and trickle down to the middle and lower class.  Actually the tax cuts are to generate for the government additional revenues, and that can be measured to determine success. The idea is to change behavior of the higher taxed citizens by enticing their investments out of tax shelters such as municipal bonds.

For example, in 1916, 206 taxpayers filed as earning more than $1,000,000. By 1921, the highest tax bracket grew to 73% to pay down the debts from World War I, but the number of taxpayers reporting over $1,000,000 fell to just 21. During this period, taxpayers reporting over $300,000 dropped by four-fifths.

President Wilson and his Secretary of the Treasury Glass both encouraged Congress to reduce the rates to increase revenues, but to no avail. In the next administration, Secretary of the Treasury Mellon initially requested Congress remove Municipal Bonds from their tax-exempt status, but Congress wouldn’t budge. Mellon, then, requested they reduce the tax rates which they did, lowering the upper bracket to 24% by 1924.

In 1925, 207 taxpayers filed incomes over $1,000,000. Tax revenues virtually doubled and the highest-bracket filers went from paying 30% of total revenues to 65%. The economy became the “Roaring Twenties,” and unemployment fell to a low 1.8%.

During 1924 election, two Senators successfully ran on “No more tax cuts for the rich.” In the 1930s, FDR’s speechwriter Rosenbaum vilified Mellon for cutting taxes for the rich, and that charge has been repeated by historians who apparently cannot tell the difference between rates and revenues. Mellon stated that the rate cuts were to get the rich to pay a share of the revenue needs, and he asked Congress to eliminate a movie theater tax because it fell heavily on the middle and lower classes.

The rate cut dramatically and demonstrably fulfilled their purposed of increasing federal revenues, and brought investments by the rich back into creating and expanding businesses which increased economic performance for everyone. Those who say otherwise are either ignorant or liars.

Cutting rates also worked during the 1960s. John Kennedy reduced highest bracket from 90%. In the 1980s, Ronald Reagan reduced rates from 70%.  Federal revenues increased both times dramatically, and the economies of those periods prospered.

In this election, a Democratic strategist has openly talked of increasing the highest bracket from 39% to 83%. With individual alternatives now globally available, this will not increase revenues. Further, our corporate tax rates are already the highest in the world, and corporations have an even easier time moving profits offshore.

Raising rates to get more revenues doesn’t work, except perhaps in getting elected. 

Oil Company Subsidies

The single largest expenditure is just over $1 billion for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which is designed to protect the U.S. from oil shortages. The second largest category is just under $1 billion in tax exemptions for farm fuel. The justification for that tax exemption is that fuel taxes pay for roads, and the farm equipment that benefits from the tax exemption is technically not supposed to be using the roads. The third largest category? $570 million for the Low-Income Home Energy Assistance Program. (This program is classified as a petroleum subsidy because it artificially reduces the price of oil). Those three programs account for $2.5 billion a year in “oil subsidies.” So the next time you hear someone express outrage over oil company subsidies, you may want to ask them exactly which ones they are talking about.

Canadian Northern Gateway Pipeline

Canada's federal government approved the C$6.5 billion ($6 billion), 1,200km (730-mile) Northern Gateway pipeline to take 525,000 barrels a day of bitumen to Kitimat, on the Pacific coast of British Columbia (BC), for shipment to Asia. Less expected was the tone and format of the announcement, a lukewarm five-paragraph news release.

They finally figured out that Obama sees everything through a political lens, and making a decision either way on the Keystone pipeline has political cost, so he wasn't going to make one. The understatement of the announcement was just in case they were wrong.

Energy and History

Much of the worlds conflicts are about energy.

Great Britain became great because of an abundance of coal.

The Japanese attacked the United States in World War II because we cut off our exports of oil and scrap metal, to induce them to get out of China. To replace the oil, they needed to take the Dutch East Indies and Malaya. Their shipping route home was bound by the Philippines, so needed to eliminate that obstruction. To counter the US Plan Orange, to defend the Philippines with our Pearl Harbor fleet, they wiped out or attempted to wipe it out. Had the carriers been at Pearl, they would have succeeded.

Hitler attacked the Soviet Union in no small part to obtain access to Soviet's oil fields. That was the purpose of Hitler's Southern Force, which he egotistically diverted to Stalingrad. Had it not been diverted, he would have had the oil and the Soviets would not have.

China, Japan and the Philippines are now in conflict over some obscure islands in the South China Sea, where the islands of little use to anyone, but the potential offshore oil fields are.

The conflict between Britain and Argentina has now re-intensified over the Falkland Islands because extensive oil fields are being developed offshore from the Falklands.

Europe is not interested in doing much about Russia because they “greened” their way into dependency on Russian oil and gas.

The United States cannot do much because we “greened” ourselves into not being able to supply our own needs in spite of having some of the richest energy sources in the world.

Further, we are now in a greatly weakened economic state, with gross deficits and debts, because we “greened” ourselves into it. We quickly forgot we defeated the Soviets because they could not match us economically. We upped out defense spending from 3% to 6% of GDP, and the Soviets could not match us by upping their 20% to 40%. Today, the Soviets and the Chinese are economically sound and own  trillions of dollars of our debt.

By refusing to really get behind energy production in the last five years, we assured our decline and assured our citizens a deteriorating future. Documentation now coming out shows Bush-Cheney indeed took Iraq to gain control of the oil, but since we let China underbid us and take control, we are left with only the expense in blood and treasure.

China has made a mission out of gaining economic control of as many world resources as possible, even buying coal mines in the United States at bargain prices. The Soviets have taken the Crimea for the energy resources offshore. The United States hit the snooze button for a second four years.

Changes in Diplomacy

While we're playing putt-putt in Ukraine, the Saudis have taken over the lead activist role in theMiddle East. They, with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Egypt withdrew their ambassadors from Qatar, because of Qatar's support and protection of those Muslim Brotherhood wanted in Egypt.

Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood won the elections in Egypt, then rewrote the constitution to allow, if not encourage, killing of others, especially Coptic Christians. When the Egyptian Army stepped in to depose Morsi and the Brotherhood, we cut off our $1.5 billion to the Egyptian Army because they had overthrown an elected leadership, but the Saudis made it up with $12-billion financing the Egyptian Army's quest to eradicate the Brotherhood.

We opposed this, but support the overthrow in Ukraine because the overthrown faction were made up of bad characters? Amusing that the Russians withdrew their offer of $15-billion in financing and we are making it up with $1-billion.

The Saudis are also opposing the Brotherhood factions in Turkey and other countries, as well as the Syrian and Iranian pushes in the Middle East. The Brotherhood faction in Turkey is now trying to do away with Twitter and Facebook in Turkey, probably because of their impact in Syria.

Syria removed all journalists from a town near the border of Jordan, then rampaged through the populous deposing any and all thought to be enemies of the regime. With cell phones, video of the atrocities was immediately posted to Twitter, Facebook, and youTube, and the Syrian civil war was on.

Russia and Iran backed Assad; the Saudis backed the opposition; and the US chose to sit it out—at least until someone (just who is still in question) used poison gas. The the US was wringing its hands about how to strike Assad without tipping the balance to the opposition, when Russia proposed a solution that took the US off the hook. Assad agreed to dismantle the manufacturing and surrender the poison gas to the US for disposal. It was about 5% complete when it stalled, and now Russia pressuring Assad to complete the deal is in doubt.

In the disagreement in Ukraine some US diplomat made the statement that Ukraine would have to choose between Europe and Russia. Why couldn't it be a cooperative effort between Europe and Russia? But, no, the US had to get its two-cents in instead of working an agreement not unlike that engineered by Putin in Syria. Game on.

Putin was the head of the KGB, perhaps the most Darwinian organization in the world, if not history. US diplomacy seems to be the Amateur Hour with outbreaks of the Gong Show.

Hillary's “Reset” button to the Russian Ambassador, for example, instead of translating “Reset” into Russian, said “Overcharge.” The Russian Ambassador speaks impeccable English; the State Department seems to get their translators from South Africa.

The “Reset” let the Russians off the hook for their invasion of Georgia without any requirement for action on their part—thus the Russians are still in Georgia. Georgia will not be considered favorably for admission to the EU, much less NATO, because of the disputed territory. It would appear we have an instant replay in Crimea and the Ukraine.

Amateur Hour going on the Gong Show. We have a better idea of Putin's master strategy than we have of Obama's.

Needling History

These last couple of days have been almost the same as the average temperatures during the last ice age. Can you imagine, with winter weather typically lasting ten months each year.

Neanderthals went extinct during the final dip of the ice age, 25,000 years ago. The last of them huddled in caves in Gibraltar, at the southern most tip of Spain. Cro-Magnon (homo sapiens) spread to cover Spain thereafter, but could not go further north because all the fertile fields and forests of France were arctic tundra.

What was the difference? Perhaps the bone needle allowing Cro-magnons to tailor skins to fit limbs in layers and add differing skins to prevent frost bite to the face. These skills are practiced by the Inuit today in the Arctic.

A Movie's Real Benefit.

Space Colony at Earth-Moon Lagrangian points L4 and L5.

Neil DegrasseTyson was criticising Gravity. Perhaps Tyson might be missing the major benefit of such a movie. Perhaps a personal story might illustrate.

While in high school I saw a movie about a kid who joined the Navy and was on the USS Skate when it went to and surfaced at the North Pole (1957). A few years later, I signed up for a program that would get me aboard submarines and learned enough technical stuff to make a living most of my life.

I also wear a ball cap with the Dolphins (submariner wings) and often think of them as one of the greatest accomplishments of my life. To give you an idea, all crew members of all submarines are less than the crew of a single attack aircraft carrier--or approximately that number. 

Submariners in World War II were only about 1% of the Navy but sunk 60% of all Japanese shipping, merchant and men-of-war. It's a pretty select bunch. I'm pretty proud of those Dolphins.

The point of the story is that one movie whose title and plot I can no longer recall, had a major effect for good in my life. The space movie may be equally effective on some kid who will later walk on the moon, Mars, an asteroid, or man the permanent space colonies at L4 and L5.

Comparative International Educational Testing Over the Years

The test measures ability to think in reading, math, and science. The only thing the United States is number one is spending per pupil. Although Luxemburg actually spends more, it has a population less than Nashville.

The item I found of most interest is that there is a one-to-one relationship between a nation's scores and that nation's long-term economic growth. Guess there is value in students, who will become workers, being able to think analytically. Imagine that.

The other thing the graph illustrates is that a nation's scores can be improved over time--dramatically.

The Smartest Kids in the World: And How They Got That Way by Amanda Ripley.

 

 

Arctic Ice Increase

The increase in Arctic ice is equivalent to about one-third the area of the United States. Guess the polar bears won't go extinct quite yet.

Of course, 6000 years ago, the world was much warmer and Arctic ice probably non-existent as indicated by ice cores and the fact that bananas grew in Sweden. That also explains why Finnish and Hungarian languages have some Japanese roots.

I wonder why the polar bears didn't go extinct then. Perhaps they didn't get the memo.

 

The Hockey Schtick and Arctic Ice

The small rise coming out of the Little Ice Age at the extreme right of the graph shows the "hockey stick" of Gore's "Inconvenient Truth." The portion of the graph to the left of the Little Ice Age shows the balance of this interglacial period, indicating the "hockey stick" should be called the "hockey schtick."

The graph shows it was much warmer than today for the thousands of years of this interglacial, indicating the Arctic was ice free for those thousands of years. It also indicates the dire predictions of an ice free Arctic have already not happened aka are BS.

False Flag For What?

Obama asks Senate for an Authorization to Use Military Force (AUMF) in Syria over an alleged chemical weapons attack. That AUMF was already worded incredibly wide, allowing the president to wage unlimited war over all the Middle East and beyond. The Senate Foreign Relations Committee widens even more so Obama can wage unlimited war in Syria and earth-orbit environs, as he wishes.

The Syrian gassing appears more and more to be a false flag which is being used for what? One begins to suspect the real intent is not just to fly a few cruise missiles into Syria, but a beginning to go after Iran and its nuke program.

If so, a lot of things make sense that otherwise make the National Command Authority look like it doesn't have sufficient brains to blow its nose. It does.

Syria Strike

Unfortunately, a Syria strike probably became inevitable when someone opened their mouth a year ago about not using chemical warfare.

The puppet masters in Russia and Iran immediately spotted the opportunity: If someone did nothing, it would weaken him around the world; if he did something, it would further alienate him from the Arab world. So they perpetrated an incident. When it got mealy mouthed, the second, larger incident on the anniversary of the red-line statement couldn't be ignored.

We will probably hit some targets with cruise missiles to no great avail, and it will be over in a matter of hours. The bad guys will seek revenge by taking Americans hostage and/or other terrorist acts.

It's the price of an OJT president up against Darwinian-survivors of their climb to the top. The President has bad advisers or didn't listen to them before speaking. He is now in a no-win situation, unnecessarily.

What scientific evidence of warming?

What scientific evidence of warming? Warmistas immediately go to "consensus" or "authority says," after denigrating anyone who wants to discuss the subject.

Here is scientific evidence. Global warming is the small rise coming out of the Little Ice Age. Note it is still a degree cooler than the Medieval Warming, two degrees cooler than the Roman Warming, and almost three degrees cooler than the Minoan Warming. The graph also shows the thousands of years of warmer climate at the beginning of the Holocene Interglacial.

What scientific evidence of warming?
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Some detail of the Medieval Warming, see Global Warming--Much To Do About Not Much.

Perspective of climate model performance and solar alternative: The Cold Experiment.

A look at CO2 as the cause of warming and prevention of cooling: Time for the Cold?

 

The Illusions of Democracy

Democracy has been defined as two wolves and a lamb voting on what is for lunch. The classic story of this is the death of Socrates. The democratically elected city fathers voted to kill Socrates, reputedly in hopes that he would leave Athens. He did not, instead accepting the judgement and drinking the hemlock.

Today, we are not short of examples. Condi Rice insisted the Gaza Strip hold democratic elections and they replaced the PLO with Hamas. Egypt replaced one dictator with the candidate of the Muslim Brotherhood, who immediately replaced the Egyptian constitution with a theocratic power document and the democratically elected president assumed all powers unto himself. All persons not fundamentalist Muslim came under attack, often fatal. The previously secular society had its economy implode, so the Egyptian army stepped in. It appears they may well have a civil war to decide the outcome.

We have various senators now calling on the Egyptian military to quickly return to democratic rule, even though a new election would re-elect the Muslim Brotherhood with the same consequences. In the meantime, these senators demand the military should not suppress the riots--which are burning Coptic Christian churches and killing Christians.

Our illustrious senators also call for an immediate cessation of the $1.3-billion in military aid. Considering the other Arab countries, opposed to the Muslim Brotherhood, are already supplying $12-billion in aid, cutting off the US aid would have little effect other than removing the US from any future influence. If the Muslim Brotherhood wins, we will have no influence; if the Egyptian army wins, the secular society will be to their benefit and the reason they strive--not our 10% contribution to their aid.

This is an Arab argument about who they want to be--and inserting our two-cents worth will be resented.  The Muslim Brotherhood has telegraphed they will not give up, so the Egyptian army will have to destroy them--and they know it. That is why they are receiving the $12-billion from other Arab states.

This potentially dark side of democracy is also why revising the vote in the US Senate to a simple majority is not the best idea. If an idea cannot accumulate a few votes from the minority party, it probably shouldn't become law. This seeming inefficiency is a major check for minority rights.

As Mr. Franklin so adroitly put it, "We have a Republic, if we can keep it."

Evolution Continues

The four major inventions of history are thought to be the wheel, the plow, the printing press and the internet. I would argue the digital computer belongs on the list whether in addition to or in place of the internet. I favor in addition to.

In fact, the computer may well be the invention that replaces us. By simple projections of Moore's Law, a computer with the capacity of the human brain is within ten years, and in another ten years, will cost less then $1000. Where will your job be then?

By 2068, the computer will be able to think all the thoughts in the history of man in less than a second; by 2088, it will measure only a cubic centimeter and cost less than $1000. Where will you be then?

The projected computer makes a natural space explorer since it can exist in space and draw energy naturally. These will be the real explorers and, indeed, inhabitants of space. This, I suspect, answers Fermi's Paradox.

The Singularity Is Near 

Water shortage?

I am amused.

"Global Water Shortages Grow Worse But Nations Have Few Answers"

70% of the earth's surface is water, but we are short?

97% is salty and another percent or so is locked up in Antarctic ice, but Nature evaporates billions of gallons per day and transports it inland. We let it run back into the sea, but we're short?

Polluted water can be cleaned with dollar filters, which are now being distributed to the undeveloped world to prevent the deaths of millions each year--but that is being done with mostly private funding--not the hundreds of millions supposedly spent by governments.

Millions of gallons per day are evaporated in cooling power plants, but that just goes into the atmosphere rather than being recaptured for fresh water supply.

On the grocery store shelves, I see water from Tahiti and Kiwi water, imported from around the world for the most fickle taste.

So, I conclude "water shortage" is lack of imagination, topped by lack of political competence, but most likely topped by a desire for an increase in the $700-million per year spent on the problem. "Spent on the problem" does not mean "spent on the solution."

The Arctic has melted!

The Cold Experiment

The reduced solar activity of this solar sunspot cycle is similar to the Dalton Minimum of 1790-1820. We are engaged in an involuntary experiment to determine if solar activity is the major driver of climate variation. Good luck.

To put the Dalton Minimum in perspective, the Little Ice Age was 1.5-degrees Centigrade lower than present. At that temperature, the Thames froze each winter sufficiently to drive horse-drawn sleighs and to hold the annual "Frost Fairs" on the ice. The Thames has not frozen during the lifetime of anyone living.

As to the cooling of 1880-1915, I used to talk to some old timers who logged the most northwestern county (Ashe) in North Carolina. They would log during the winter because they could sled timber out on the frozen river. That river hasn't frozen since that cooling period ended, thus during the lifetime of any but the most eldest of citizens still living.

 

Lethal Assumptions

Both Martin and Zimmerman went into their encounter with stupidly invalid assumptions. Martin's proved lethal. Had either held more accurate or mature viewpoints, the encounter would not have happened. However, stupid isn't against the law.

Zimmerman's defense for killing Martin was not "stand your ground" as so many in the media believe or would have us believe. It was simple "self-defense" which is by and large valid in any state or jurisdiction where the weapon used is a legal carry.

Martin was sitting on Zimmerman's chest, pummeling his face. This scenario is substantiated by grass stains on Zimmerman's back and Martin's knees, Zimmerman's bloody, swollen nose and lacerations to the back of his head. Zimmerman is not require to give Martin oh-so-many blows or minutes to determine whether Martin's intentions are to kill or merely maim.

This is enough for self-defense or at least reasonable doubt. The jury is not required to determine which, only that it's one or the other. It was.

The lethal assumption by Martin is that before sitting on someone's chest and pummeling them, make sure rather than assume they are unarmed.
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• Martin, a 6'2" 175 pound black man could have JOGGED and outrun chubby, short George Zimmerman, but he chose to attack him.

• Martin didn't NEED to sucker punch Zimmerman and break his nose saying "You're gonna die tonight mother***er!".

• Martin also didn't NEED to then get on top of Zimmerman pummeling him with punches and slamming his head into the concrete while Zimmerman screamed for help that wasn't coming.

• No, Martin didn't NEED to die that night. But he brought it on himself.
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http://pjmedia.com/blog/martin-zimmerman-misperceptions/?singlepage=true
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vqLc5adFy_Q

Heat in the West

Climate alarmists have declared that 110 degree weather in Arizona proves that the world is warming. Let’s check by looking at the stats. Parker, Arizona has had 3,525 days since 1893 over 110º, 690 days over 115º, and 51 days over 120º. Parker has also had five days over 125º, all of which occurred in June 1896 and July 1905.

Someone has perhaps been drinking too much green kool-aid?