McChrystal Nacht?

General Stan McChrystal was published in Rolling Stone, then fired for insubordination. For days, media has mused about how he could be so stupid. Was he? Note, criticism states he and his staff should not have said what they said, at least in front of a reporter, but not that the statements weren't true.

Media exposed a couple of factors, but haven't realized what they've exposed:

1) the President is disengaged, and
2) the war is being run by committee!

One doesn't run a war by committee, at least, if one wants to win. Further, this committee is staffed by antagonists, if not adversaries. These were the people criticized by McChrystal's staff.

Richard Holbrooke, Special Envoy to Afghanistan and Pakistan, is one of Obama's Czars, meaning he was not confirmed by the Senate as ambassadors are required to be. Both Afghanistan and Pakistan have official ambassadors who perform their full functions, thus leaving Holbrooke without a real job (acting like “a wounded animal” as McChrystal's staff phrased it) and who is reduced to writing “another memo from Holbrooke” as McChrystal himself phrased it.

Ambassador to Afghanistan is Karl Eikenberry, who was appointed by Obama while Eikenberry was still a serving Lt. General in the Army. He is a full member of the committee, but hardly a team player—or much of an ambassador. He has frustrated actions by publicly criticizing Karsai and writing a back-channel memo disagreeing with McChrystal when McChrystal was attempting to have the surge approved. Someone unappreciative of Eikenberry's “unteamly” ethics leaked the memo, so everyone would know who and what Eikenberry was.

James Jones is Obama's National Security Adviser and a retired Commandant of the Marine Corp. Jones seems not a fan of Counter-insurgency, thus is “stuck in 1985,” as McChrystal's staff describes him. There are two thoughts in the Armed Services about counter-insurgency, and the “old school” has a point. As one Master Gunnery Sergeant explained, one can go in, take everything out, leave, then repeat as needed. It's cheaper in troops and treasure, and there is nothing in Afghanistan to rebuild.

Joe Biden is also in the mix, but it isn't clear how much. It was said he was fascinated with counter-insurgency, but that hardly says he knows much. He may well be, however, one of those who confuse position with knowledge and wisdom. Those who think they are ordinated by God are often idiots by nature. McChrystal wonders aloud what Biden question he might get today, and how he should respond "I never know what's going to pop out until I'm up there, that's the problem," he says.

Obama's involvement shows: “It was a 10-minute photo op," says an adviser to McChrystal. "Obama clearly didn't know anything about him, who he was. Here's the guy who's going to run his f**king war, but he didn't seem very engaged. The Boss was pretty disappointed."


Seems McChrystal had less-than-complete authority to run the Afghan campaign, but would have been the major, if not sole, person blamed for its failure. With the antagonistic nature of the committee, the remote-to-unavailable access to higher authority, McChrystal used Rolling Stone as way to change the mix while telling the truth. It got him fired but not accused of whining and not being up to winning. He exposed the problems, even though he had to take the hit. Special Ops requires smarts and McChrystal is the best.

Is it true? We will learn eventually. McChyrstal has been fired from commander in Afghanistan, but not retired from the Army. They can keep him in the Army to keep him quiet, for he will no doubt reap a large-advance book deal as soon as he is available.

Watch how many of these committee members disappear after we've supposedly forgotten, or watch them become real cooperative, team players. Patraeus, I think, would have demanded that and a softening of the exit deadline--or would not have taken the job. He may well be the one guy in the room as smart as or smarter than McChrystal.






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23 July 2010: On this date, Stan McChrystal retired at the rank of full general in spite of not having sufficient time in grade to qualify. Perhaps that is the token of having to suffer war by committee with a committee ranging from incompetent to adverse. A book deal worth millions no doubt looms.

Washington Post article on McChrystals retirement.
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08.16.10: McChrystal accepts position at Yale: http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/20100816/pl_politico/41101

Because Jiminy Cricket Had No Stones

In November, 1979, Iranian “students” stormed the American embassy and took 52 diplomats and military personnel hostage. The military personnel, mostly Marines charged with protecting the embassy, were ordered not to resist. They reluctantly followed orders and were subjected to seemingly endless days of taunting.

Shortly, the Soviet embassy was also taken. A messenger from the office of the Ayatollah Khomeini visited the Soviet embassy, and the students released their captives and left the embassy. No one knows what the messenger said, but it probably noted that the Soviets were an armored force with an adjoining border with Iran (Turkmenistan in those days was the Soviet Union), and the Soviets view hostages as military captives to be rescued and revenged. Further, the messenger might have mentioned that the Soviets had long desired a warm-water port and taking diplomatic hostages was an act of war, thereby providing reason to invade Iran.

American leadership was correctly adjudged not to have sufficient stones to stand up for their personnel. Thus started a thousand Jihady cells of resistance to the West, and especially Israel and the Great Satan. What should have happened was the immediate issuance of a threat such as:

“Unless the illegally restrained diplomatic and military personnel of the United States are immediately released, the United States will begin to strike the military of Iran. Should any of the 52 hostages be harmed, the United States will eliminate the electric grid, infrastructure, and ability of Iran to export oil.”

This demand could have initially been back-channeled to the Iranian government, allowing them to comply without public embarrassment. Should they not comply, it would have been made public, then followed through. The probable positive outcome was illustrated by the release of the hostages at the very moment Reagan was being inaugurated as President.

Over the years, the results of insufficient stones has resulted in the deaths of more than 5200 compared to the 52 that would have been at risk, and deaths from inspired and financed terror continue.

Now, after the “World Apology Tour” and the policy of “Talk Loudly and Carry a Small Stick,” Iran will probably complete nuclear armament, and could well bring the 5200 dead to 52,000, or 520,000, or even conceivably 5.2M.

All this because Jiminy Cricket had no stones.

The Myth of Middle-east Peace

Although the media and government continually promote Middle-east peace, it's not going to happen. Too many pressures oppose it, and it is not the Israelis. Israelis are continually pressed to trade land for a promise of peace, but fifty years of experience show the Palestinians merely take the land and ask, “What's next?” Peace from these deals proves temporary, fleeting and disingenuous.

The Israelis get pressured to allow Palestinian self-rule, but the Israelis have offered autonomy for almost two decades now. Palestinians ignore the offers or summarily refuse. The simple reason is that anyone compromising with Israel immediately becomes targeted and killed; e.g., Sadat. Palestinian leaders apparently aren't suicidal. They send suicide bombers, but refuse to be suicidal.

Outsiders seem oblivious of the internal dynamics operating within the Palestinian community. For example, Condoleezza Rice insisted on free elections in Gaza, then got blindsided by the election of Hamas. Rice, et al, were oblivious to to two simple facts:

1) The PLO received hundreds of millions per year, which went almost totally into graft.

2) Hamas opened and operated neighborhood schools and clinics, rebuilt houses destroyed by the Israelis, and served families in daily ways such as talking to a child not exhibiting full effort in school, or even unplugging clogged plumbing.

Who would you vote for?

The UN, EU, etc. withhold funding previously going to the PLO because Hamas is a terrorist organization. Iran and Syria have stepped into the breech merely by increasing funding already being sent.

The economics are simple: Iran can smuggle in, say, a million dollars worth of arms, Hamas can fire these rockets off, the price of oil goes up a dollar per barrel, and Iran makes an additional billion and one-half from oil exports. Enviable ROI.

Any questions?

BP Payouts

BP just agreed to the $20B fund to compensate people, but are only required to fund $5B this year. They've already spent $2B on cleanup, compensation and capping, but anticipate at least the compensation will be redirected to the newly setup fund. They've suspended the $10B dividend payment for the year, so they are at the moment $3B ahead of break even.

They agreed to the $20B fund because it would stabilize their stock, which had declined from $60 to $30 per share. With over 3B shares outstanding, that was a loss of $90B already experienced, so the $5B funding required this year was a bargain, especially when the stock looked like it might going into free fall.

Share prices may well have been coming in range of the Wolfpack, the adverse investors so named by the Swedish Finance Minister, for raiding companies and now countries in financial stress. These are the guys, for example, that purchased $5/share puts (contracts to sell at $5/share) when Smith-Barney was still priced in the $50s per share. The puts would have been very cheap, then the Wolfpack drove down the price using leverage. Within a few weeks, Smith-Barney was bought out for $2 per share, giving the Wolfpack $3/share profit less their put cost (say, 5-cents per share).

The Wolfpack is now working countries such as Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy, and Ireland, but won't hesitate to gobble up BP if the opportunity became available--and it almost did.

This one oil find, to be leaking so much, under so much pressure, is probably a big one (pressure at 5000 feet is about 2250 lbs/square inch). If it were even 1B barrels, at $70 per barrel, it is worth $70B, the largest speculated cost of the cleanup and compensation.

No, BP won't be run out of money too easily, and this doesn't count later, when the well is capped, much is cleaned up, and BP requests the courts cap payouts based on how far BP had already exceeded the $75M maximum liability provided by our lawmakers in their infinite wisdom. Might explain why the CONgressional twits yelled loudly at BP: a little hope-you-don't-notice how incompetent we've been.

Boots on the Ground

On March 1, 2007, Major General George W. Weightman was relieved of duty by the Secretary of the Army because service leaders had “lost trust and confidence” of his abilities “to address needed solutions for soldier outpatient care.” Weightman was head of Walter Reed Army Hospital and had been for six months. The Washington Post, in a series of articles, apparently had to tell him and everyone else, that he had not been doing his job.

Too bad. He is a graduate of the Military Academy, so “Duty, Honor, Country” is more than a sound-good catch phrase. He was commissioned a Lieutenant of Infantry, and did a tour as such. He served with the 82nd Airborne during Persian Gulf I.

Somewhere he forgot, reality does not exist between the In and Out boxes. To command, one puts eyeballs on things, “Trust but verify,” as Mr Reagan so adroitly put it. One puts “boots on the ground.” Had the general gotten out from behind his desk and walked downstairs to check on his people and especially the people who needed him most, he could have been the hero instead of the goat.

In your life, put boots on the ground.