Sad

Christians in Iraq have never expected a white Christmas, but this year there will be no Christmas. Church leaders in Baghdad have called off midnight Mass and an appearance by Santa Claus in the wake of a deadly attack on a Baghdad church. On Tuesday, al-Qaida issued new threats to Iraq's Christians, and church leaders encouraged their congregations to forgo holiday decorations or any other form of Christmas celebration. When the U.S. invaded Iraq in 2003, there were 1.4 million Christians in the country; since then, the number has dwindled to 400,000. ~ The Slatest

The sad result of an imperialistic and "crusader" policy of the Bush Administration. Christians have been present and generally safe in Iraq almost since the time of Christ. They are the casualties of people who fail to see the consequences of interferring in complex cultures we can't possibly totally understand. We have turned the tide against Sunnies and given the more Theocratic Shiites the advantage. Secularism, which was strong in Iraq was destroyed by an ignorant man who had "issues" and no notion of history put into power by neo-colonialists who failed to understand that empire is the last thing America should be striving for. They radicalized Iraq and the world in eight short years and we will spend the rest of this century trying to undo the damage. ~ Paul Webster, Washington Post?

Energy Economics

I suspect we will get $4.00 gas and burgers without further assistance. The recent Obama-Republican deal is a trillion dollar Stimulus II, and should have this result without Bennie. Bennie will hold QE III in case China or others choose to hold us up with the selling or threat of selling their holdings of our debt. QE2 may indeed have had a "note-to-China" purpose. QE2's rate increase may also have been a "note-to-Bennie" warning that he is out on a limb dangerously close to the reach of the financial wolfpack.

Another reason for $4.00 gas is the absence of new drilling permits silently undermining the public statement from Salazar that we can resume oil exploration and production. Salazar is another professional politician for the first time running something larger than a committee meeting and which has real-world consequences besides embellishing or embarrassing Salazar. BP was an embarrassment, compounded by his own "boot-to-the-neck" rhetoric, probably capped by a phone call from a Coast Guard Admiral informing him who was in charge of the oil spill response.

MMS has to write the environmental impact statement for every application, and was churning out an 800-average page count statement that was reviewed by NOAA, then challenged by the green lawyers paid to do just that. After BP, the content of such has to be even more extensive to pass internal review in addition to a re-invigorated subsequent challenges--and jut what these new requirement are or will be must be decided before all applications can begin to be processed anew.

Energy has grown from 6% to 10% of GDP, and appears to be accelerating without anyone able or willing to make a difference. Most are probably either obtuse to their potential impact--or in favor of it.

The last time transport fuels reached $4.00 per gallon, the roads became comparatively empty and the economy dipped. We will shortly find out whether this $4 price intolerance still exists, has risen, or, because of economic tenderness, may even have shrunk.

Power generation has a parallel story of impediment without solutions. Over 100 new coal-fired stations have been canceled or indefinitely delayed because the President personally said they were free to build them if they want to go bankrupt. If cap-and-trade goes into effect either through law or administrative fiat, which EPA has stated they are determined to do, coal-fired power will double in cost, meaning average power cost to the consumer will increase about 50% since coal-fired power is 50% of our power generation--and the cheapest per kilowatt hour.

Energy is not just a convenience; it is the basis of civilization and should these "leaders" take down energy economics which it appears they are doing, determinedly or inadvertently, we will realize at least great Depression II--if not Dark Ages II.

Performance Review?

Intelligence says al Qaeda in Afghanistan numbered between 50 and 100 at the beginning of the year. US KIA YTD is 489. Intelligence still says al Qaeda in Afghanistan now numbers between 50 and 100.

Something wrong with this picture?
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Reference.

WikiBlinks

“Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.“

If the above is unfamiliar, do not feel bad. It can be readily researched on the web. It seems unfamiliar to a few potential presidential candidates, judging by one's suggestion we run a Predator attack against WikiLeaks in Sweden. The question seems then, is he really that ignorant, or just think we are.

Another presidential wanna-be and some members of Congress want Julian Assange classified as a terrorist. Why? So we can kidnap and spirit him off to some black prison or Guantanamo?

The above law is the reason that the New York Times and Washington Post have not been charged under the espionage acts of 1917 or 1970. It would be successfully fought and result in a further weakening of the remaining power held under the auspice of these acts.

The New York Times and other papers lead with articles each day, drawn from WikiLeaks, and they are not hassled, harassed, threatened or intimidated by any of these characters or the law. That was firmly decided by government action to suppress publication of the Pentagon Papers when the US Supreme Court found in favor of the NY Times. So the question is: Is WikiLeaks and Assange journalism, or not?

The furor results more from embarrassment rather than the content of the leaks. The medical and ethical problems of the Afghan leadership is known to everyone, and classifying it Secret is not going to keep it from the only party still possibly ignorant, the American public. These are the people who have a problem with investing more lives and treasure to prop up a regime of such dubious potential. The only actual surprise was the Afghan Commissioner of Agriculture, who does not give or take bribes and appears competent.

Another non-surprise was the communicated instruction from Hillary for diplomats to gather information on their counterpart diplomats that could only be used to blackmail them into compliance with US wishes. Hillary undertook a similar action while in the White House in hopes of controlling Bill's former sexual partners and his Republican enemies. This all is nothing new in international diplomatic tactics.

Anyway, a foreign diplomat or leader who, say, has bad breath and throws like a girl probably knows it and knows that everyone else does, too. As one foreign diplomat told Hillary, “Don't worry about it. You should hear what we say about you.”

If known, those replies are sufficiently embarrassing to be classified above the Secret level of this latest Wiki release. Secret is a couple clicks above toilet paper. Toilet paper is unclassified, but the number of rolls used is probably Confidential, who uses how many Secret, and if they pay more than, say, ten dollars per roll, the price is probably Top Secret. In spite of the ominous sound of Secret classification, the insignificance of the level is perhaps best illustrated by 3 million people having on-line access to these State Department communications. With that width of access, the three major reasons everyone down to and including Girl Scouts of America have not penetrated sufficiently to read them was 1) the volume would require man-years, 2) assuming one could stay awake reading them, and 3) most everyone would use the resources for better return (reading the New York Times gives one the significant items, for example).

If anyone named in these releases is truly endangered as claimed, marking that item Secret is a criminally incompetent under-classification, but probably leads one to ask whether the politician making this assertion is that ignorant or believes his audience is. Either way, he becomes a person unworthy of ever being listened to, again.

One stunning example of under-classifying is the request and responses for sensitive targets that could hurt civilization.

Perhaps most embarrassing, thus most infuriating, is the source of the leaks, a PFC, who was depressing because his boyfriend dumped him. One thinks of a “military analyst” as being at least a precocious Lieutenant Colonel, or a Ph.D. working for some think tank, but not a PFC making coffee, sweeping floors, and cleaning latrines. Being the one person that can be charged, the target is hardly worth the retribution for the embarrassment.

Thus comes the target of greater desperation, the founder of WikiLinks, Julian Assange. Assange shows an understand of international relations, hiding in Britain. Sweden was pressured to attempt to imprison him, but on sex charges and even then only after Assange threatened Bank of America with exposure. Then, Interpol moved Assange to the ten-most-wanted list.

The potential charges are so obviously contrived as to stretch belief. Seems in Sweden, a female can change her mind about being a consenting adult afterwards, in this case when she finds there is another woman. Perhaps that is why the Swedes just want Assange for questioning, but bad enough to put him the ten-most- wanted list? Smells a bit ripe, does it not?

The entire affair becomes a disappointment and embarrassment, but not a surprise, that:

1.The government, in their own words, are inane, inept, incompetent, and unethical in its dealings with others and relations with the public. Assange is merely reporting this, not causing it.

2.The government was obviously inane, inept and incompetent in protecting its own material. Assange merely demonstrates this in reporting it.

3.Assange is merely the target of those would-be politicians that readily shred the Constitution to obtain a 15-second sound byte in the news. Those who do, should be removed from consideration as a presidential candidate in future elections.

The attempt to refocus and inflame ire against Assange is a transparent attempt to cover their own shortcomings, and a further embarrassment to the citizens that would wish and expect better of their government.

An amusing observation is that Iran seems as angry about these releases as the United States. With a distribution of 3 million, Iran probably already knew the contents, and perhaps they are mad that we now know they know.
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A Personal Observation: When the Pentagon Papers were originally to be released, I was angry at Ellsberg and the NY Times for even contemplating such a treasonous act, but after reading them, I realized they had done the right thing. The feeling at my country's leadership carelessly and cluelessly sending tens of thousands to their death was a revulsion like turning on the kitchen light and watching cockroaches scurrying for cover.

WikiLinks releases gives rise to similar revulsion for similar reason.

Three Envelopes

This is a management story that applies to any level, any organization. Basically, it is a story of incompetent management, for when one observes these indications, the manager knows not what he is doing. I originally heard it as an Army story, so shall relay it in that form; but it is truly universal.

A new, young Army Captain was assuming command of a company from a retiring, experienced, "Mustang" Captain. After the usual round of takeover tasks, the two of them were relaxing in the Company Commander's office. The retiring captain told the new commander, "I have left you three numbered, sealed envelopes in your desk drawer. If things seem not to be going well, open the envelopes in sequence and apply the principle stated. Good luck." The retiring captain left and the new captain took his place behind the desk and smiled at the nice gesture of the outgoing commander.

After approximately a month, things were indeed not going well, so the Captain decided to try the envelopes, thinking, they couldn't hurt and just might help. So, he opened the desk, retrieved the first envelope and ripped it open. It read, "Blame it on your predecessor."

Well, since he was gone, why not? Things did indeed seem to go better for a couple of months, but the tact was getting old and began getting only pained, impatient looks. He decided to try the next envelops, so opened the desk, retrieved number two, and opened it. It read, "Reorganize."

Sure enough, that one really worked--for awhile. Then, things really weren't going much better, and no one wanted to hear that word, again. Thinking this last envelope had better be good, he retrieved and opened it. It read, "Get three envelopes!"

Want to bet on four?

Thirty years ago, tonight, the American public shocked the pollsters, the political pundits, and the Eastern media mouths, by a landslide election of a b-grade movie actor considered an amiable lightweight. By the time of that actor's death, his legend had reached near Churchillian proportion.

The main lesson repeated that night was the public periodically refuses to live down to political opinion that they are stupid. They throw the rascals out. They've done this about once per decade, but have now done it every two years three times in a row. Want to bet on four?

Taking on the Red Queen

NPR doesn't need someone acting stupidly leading them. Vivian Schiller, NPR's Red Queen ("Off with his head."), makes them unhappy since she has stepped in it several times in the past week:

1) Firing Juan Williams because of complaints instead of actually listening to the excerpt, probably. Complaints were from CAIR, a muslum stir-up-the-world group.

2) Firing Williams by having a subordinate do it rudely and crudely on the phone.

3) Initially stating it was for two items in his contract that others had more egregiously transgressed over the years.

4) Changing her story to having had multiple transgressions over the years, thus besmirching Williams' reputation.

5) Making the comment that Williams should have said it to his psychiatrist, thus besmirching his reputation some more.

6) Doing all this during NPR's fund raising week.

7) Doing this the week after getting over $1M from Soros.

8) Going up against Fox News where most of the good looking blonds are ivy-league caliber lawyers.

9) Inflaming the Republicans who have long wanted to cut funding to NPR, and who may well be the power in the House (where budgets are determined) after the next election. She has contributed to Republican voter anger thus increasing Republican turnout.

I really think she will be unemployed shortly, and the best reason I can think of to fire her is that NPR cannot afford to have a CEO that repeatedly acts that stupidly in ways adverse to NPR. And I doubt Williams will agree to a beer summit.

Experience enables recognizing a mistake when we make it again.

“We have undoubtedly expanded the credit structure, spending today and postponing the accounting until tomorrow. We have been guilty of the sin of inflation....Credit expansion results in business activity in full employment, in optimistic outlook and in a flood of gratulatory literature proclaiming us wiser then our predecessors. But the evidence is consistent and cumulative. The past decade has witnessed a great volume of credit inflation. Our period of prosperity in part was base on nothing more substantial than debt expansion.

“When the accounts are footed we shall have learned new lessons respecting the evils of credit inflation. This dear bought wisdom we may place beside our knowledge of the evils of monetary inflation purchased at an equally dear price. We may venture pious hope that the joint lessons will induce growth of the wisdom to foresee, caution to move less rapidly and more surely in the path of progress.” ~ Charles E. Persons, economist, 1930

“Governments never learn. Only people learn." ~ Milton Friedman, economist

“Experience is that marvelous thing that enables you to recognize a mistake when you make it again.” ~ Franklin P. Jones, reporter, humorist

Reality Is...

Reality is not necessarily what you want to hear, but reality is...

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/shootemups-are-good-for-you-say-researchers-2078435.html

In the earlier days of computing when the console games at arcades had the fastest, most capable microprocessors, Fort Knox, home of Army Armor, got the game manufacturers to create realistic games for armored combat for the EM clubs. How well it worked can be measured perhaps by Persian Gulf I: US Armor-all of 'em; Republican Guard 1.

Later, the Army invested heavily in simulation, so much so, a unit could train realistically against another armored unit located half-a-world away. It illustrates why we have not only the best equipment but the best trained, most capable warriors--ever! Kids coming in with the experience and capability of these games is perhaps the greatest underestimated reason we field the most capable military ever, from infantry to fighter pilot.

It supports the reason the United States has not only become the only remaining superpower, but something at least temporarily beyond that--a hyperpower, a world hegemony. Even more remarkable is that we use this power mostly for good, not taking and holding land and peoples.

It is reason the US is hated and loved, but please note, we are having to build fences to keep people out, not in as did the Soviets. Other countries take our example as lessons and thrive. The poverty class has been halved in Asia in the last thirty years because they mimic our organizational capability, spirit and industry. We deploy much more than jeans, McDonalds and Hollywood.

The shame is we seem embarrassed by our success and do self-detrimental things to destroy ourselves. We have grown out of truly distasteful things in our past such as slavery and treatment of native Americans, but we have also matured into perhaps the greatest thing to have happened in the history of mankind. And we don't seem to know it.

In some sense, it is not only because of the microprocessor, but in how we've used it. Gaming is what people do in graduate school and in bedrooms. It leads not only to staffing the greatest military, but the greatest economy ever-the one the rest are trying to emulate. China and India have discovered and now exploit the greatest asset they had all along--their people--the asset we've done so well at developing.

It's amazing that investing in people becomes so beneficial for the people, for the society, for the civilization, and the government.

Tis the Silly Season

Not much real news the last couple days. The Republicans campaign on "We're not Democrats." The Democrats claim "We're not Bush." That's news?

Some wacko in Florida holds hostage the major figures of the non-War on Terror up to and including the Commander-in-Chief, and they don't know what to do about it. The media fans it like kids egging on a fight in the schoolyard. We're waiting, Mr. Prez. Got a clue?

The Secretary of State claims our debt and deficit place us in a disadvantage in foreign affairs. Really? Could that be true? With China the largest holder of US debt and manipulating their currency to give them trade advantage, we beg them to improve the situation, they ignore us, and we are afraid to correct the situation by simply placing a tariff on Chinese imports because they might dump our debt--and that prevents us from acting in our own best interest?

Makes one wonder how civilization has gotten this far if our fearless leaders cannot figure out and handle this simple situations. What are they going to do with the tough ones? I wouldn't expect it to go much better, but that's just a personal opinion.

BP 1; EPA 0; Greenies 0.

"Government scientists studying the BP disaster are reporting the best possible outcome: Microbes are consuming the oil in the Gulf without depleting the oxygen in the water and creating "dead zones" where fish cannot survive." REF

EPA failed to test dispersants in the 20 years since Exxon Valdez, so restricted BP's usage by 75% because it "might" hurt something. Unknown to EPA, apparently, the Brits had tested it and approved unlimited usage outside of 10 miles of coast. After EPA restriction, the oil came ashore.

Is EPA more responsible for the damage ashore than BP?

Greenies opposed any use of dispersant because they wanted all the oil to come to the surface so it could be seen. Instead of minimizing damage to the environment, they apparently wanted to maximize it to make points. With friends like them, the environment doesn't need enemies.

The plumes of underwater oil thought so horrific turn out to be so diluted one could swim through a plume without realizing it. Seems it takes mass spectrometry or other sophisticated chemical analysis to detect the oil in the plumes. Most just failed to mention this little fact. Wonder why?

These criticisms in no way should be interpreted as exonerating BP of the shoddy engineering practices in their attempt to save money. They blew it and we all will pay for it--including BP--but not including the EPA and greenies. I just wanted to assure EPA and greenies got their full and just credit. They did so much.

Lessons from Katrina Not Learned

Katrina offered multiple opportunities to learn lessons, but many have been ignored. It is fitting to review a few on this fifth anniversary, although media coverage has made Katrina a bit nauseating. However, the BP spill proves some major lessons were not learned from either Katrina or Valdez.

One of the biggest can be called chain of command, but actually is under-empowerment. Brown, head of FEMA, took the major hit for Katrina, but responsibilities for the failures belong to his superiors. During the reorganization of government following 9/11, FEMA was made a minor department within Homeland Security. Instead of a cabinet post, head of FEMA was now several positions away from the President.

The original Secretary of Homeland Security was Tom Ridge, an ex-governor, who knew the importance of FEMA. Even so, FEMA was not seen as mainline to the primary mission of Homeland Security, and primary mission think eroded FEMA's budget, power and preparedness. When Chertoff took over, he did not have any background and it showed. Brown had submitted his resignation early in the year, but was talked into staying through hurricane season.

The biggest mistake Chertoff made was NOT appointing a Principal Federal Officer (PFO) before Katrina hit. In fact, that omission was not corrected for over a week until the appointment of Lt. Gen. Honoré, “The Ragin' Cajun.” As New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin so adroitly put it, "Now, I will tell you this -- and I give the president some credit on this -- he sent one John Wayne dude down here that can get some stuff done, and his name is Gen. Honoré. And he came off the doggone chopper, and he started cussing and people started moving. And he's getting some stuff done." The PFO had been appointed and empowered. His public exposure came when he told a reporter “Don't get stuck on stupid.” Had Honoré been appointed two days before Katrina, history would have been different.

When the BP Oil Spill was realized as serious, a PFO was appointed (April 30, 2010), but called National Incident Commander. Admiral Thad Allen got the appointment, and served in both that post and as Commandant of the Coast Guard until May 25, 2010. His empowerment was not total as indicated by response to a reporter's question about his chain of command. It was through various officials of Homeland Security before reaching the President.

What this meant is illustrated by a proposal or request made by a Louisiana Parrish. The request was routed through 14 different federal departments, any of which could kill, modify, or simply delay the request. The Louisiana request to build 40 miles of berm to protect their wet lands from oil took 14 days to wind through the bureaucracy, coming back with only 6 miles approved. Several days later, it was also announced that BP would only pay for one mile.

Later while building the berm, a single official with the federal wildlife service forbid taking fill from a spot she considered a threat to later subsidence of an island the berm was to protect. Her requirement delayed building the berm until a pipe could be laid and assembled to a dredge offshore. The official asked why they couldn't just get volunteers to place the pipe. The pipe was so large one could ride an ATV down it, thus required a crane to lift each pipe section in place, then welders to connect them to adjacent sections. An empowered bureaucrat without a clue shows the main problem was a National Incident Commander without the power to command all the departments involved to be proactive in an emergency instead of impediments as usual.

A comparison story was from the Storm of the Century in 1993. The Emergency Manager of Buncombe County requested the NC Department of Transportation (DOT) equipment clear the way for the power company trucks to reach places necessary to restore power in the county. DOT refused, claiming their primary focus was to clear main roads first, then back roads in sequence of importance. The Emergency Manager, knowing the Governor, dialed his number from memory, told him of the problem with a colorful opinion of DOT performance, and hung up. Ten minutes later, DOT called the Emergency Manager, asking which roads he wanted cleared and in what sequence.

The National Incident Commander needs that link to authority, that empowerment. When Thad Allen was required to retire by law from the Coast Guard by June 30, 2010, he negotiated the needed power to stay on as National Incident Commander. He got it and he stayed. Had he not, July 1, he could have been on all news programs with an explanation of why he had not stayed, an intolerable prospect for national authority figures. Allen's new power was expressed by 76 approved exceptions to the EPA's ban on dispersant usage.

EPA did not object too loudly because it had failed to test dispersants in the 20 years since the Valdez spill, but, when greenies screamed, forbade further usage in the BP spill because “it might harm the environment.” The Brits had tested it, and approved unlimited usage more than 10 miles offshore. Testing within ten miles of shore did not happen because the Brits would not consider usage within coastal proximity. When Allen approved usage, EPA did not howl too loudly because of its embarrassing non-performance. When they did, Allen was nice to them by explaining that all 76 incidents were to prevent oil coming ashore.

Perhaps the EPA will test dispersants now, or just ban them as an appeasement to the greenies. Will the fed learn the lesson of appointing and empowering the National Incident Commander next time? We'll have to wait until next time to see.

Flu Vaccine

That time again comes early this year. Vaccines are already available, but the arguments lag. I got mine before the rush, and feel a bit uncomfortable. To me that indicates I've been vaccinate against a strain I would have been susceptible to. Better a day or so of slight discomfort than weeks of sheer misery.

Those who no longer get the vaccine because "it made me ill" or "it gave me the flu" know not what they do. Reaction to the vaccine that expresses as symptoms indicates high susceptibility. Those symptoms will diminish in following years as immunity builds. Ceasing vaccination puts that person and those around them at risk.

Least amusing are the health-care workers who refuse to get it or bitch about having be inoculated. If they work with those whose immunities are compromised, and transmit flu which proves lethal, are they not guilty of at least manslaughter?

One is contagious for a day or so before expressing symptoms. That day they are potentially an Angel of Death.

"Bearing" With It

Many say that the heat of global warming will kill the polar bears. Here is a bear at the San Diego Zoo, scratching his tummy and quite content in his outdoor confines. I am glad no one told him the heat is lethal.

Sniffing Ethanol

The problem with corn ethanol is that creating it requires about as much energy as it generates. Were it not for government subsidies, it would fail. Instead government mandates its expansion.

Farming corn requires only 35% of the production energy total; refining 65%. In terms of EROEI (Energy Return On Energy Invested), the most efficient U.S. refinery produces 1.18 output for 1.00 input. In the attached table, Minnesota's 1.14 (EROIRG, in the last column) is the most efficient. In other words, for 7.5 gallons of ethanol produced, 6.5 gallons or their energy equivalent are consumed in growing and refining. In states such as Texas and Missouri, ethanol production requires more energy input than output. In the table, the next-to-last column (EROIPG) relates the efficiency of farm production.

Overall, the average efficiency is approximately 1.05 to 1.00, one gallon net for every 20 gallons consumed, less than 5% efficiency. Compared to gasoline, one gallon is consumed for every ten gallons produced, or a 90% efficiency. Even Canadian tar sands or oil shale outdistance ethanol, easily, and this is before considering ethanol has only 62% of the energy of gasoline.

Ethanol production stands on the government's subsidy of 51-cents per gallon, combined with a protective tariff of 54-cents per gallon. Otherwise sugar-cane ethanol from Brazil could compete with subsidized corn-based ethanol. Unsubsidized corn-base ethanol cannot compete with its own costs of production, and this doesn't consider soil or aquifer depletion. It's a boondoggle keeping the price of corn up, bio-refiners in business, Midwestern congressmen in office, and food prices higher the world over.

Ethanol produced in oak barrels, by comparison, provides profits to its producers, $16 per gallon taxes to the Federal government, 6-10% sales tax to state governments, products for export, and contributes to the pursuit of happiness for its consumers.

An End to Nuclear Arms? Doubt it!

The Russian Federation sits above China. Russia has a population of 141 million, down from 148 million when the Soviet Union dissolved. The majority of that population resides in the European areas near Moscow and St. Petersburg; few in the Asian areas where the majority of Russia's plentiful natural resources are.

Russia is the richest country in the world in terms of natural resources. After the Soviet Union went bankrupt, Russia invited many international corporations in to develop its natural resources with revenue sharing as the contingent reward. It worked well. Twenty years later, Russia is the world's second-largest exporter of oil and natural gas and the seventh-largest holder of American debt.

China is the most populous country in the world with 1.3 billion people and could well use the natural resources to its north. Without Russia's nuclear arms, how long would China take to acquire those natural resources?

Russia is not suicidal.

McChrystal Nacht?

General Stan McChrystal was published in Rolling Stone, then fired for insubordination. For days, media has mused about how he could be so stupid. Was he? Note, criticism states he and his staff should not have said what they said, at least in front of a reporter, but not that the statements weren't true.

Media exposed a couple of factors, but haven't realized what they've exposed:

1) the President is disengaged, and
2) the war is being run by committee!

One doesn't run a war by committee, at least, if one wants to win. Further, this committee is staffed by antagonists, if not adversaries. These were the people criticized by McChrystal's staff.

Richard Holbrooke, Special Envoy to Afghanistan and Pakistan, is one of Obama's Czars, meaning he was not confirmed by the Senate as ambassadors are required to be. Both Afghanistan and Pakistan have official ambassadors who perform their full functions, thus leaving Holbrooke without a real job (acting like “a wounded animal” as McChrystal's staff phrased it) and who is reduced to writing “another memo from Holbrooke” as McChrystal himself phrased it.

Ambassador to Afghanistan is Karl Eikenberry, who was appointed by Obama while Eikenberry was still a serving Lt. General in the Army. He is a full member of the committee, but hardly a team player—or much of an ambassador. He has frustrated actions by publicly criticizing Karsai and writing a back-channel memo disagreeing with McChrystal when McChrystal was attempting to have the surge approved. Someone unappreciative of Eikenberry's “unteamly” ethics leaked the memo, so everyone would know who and what Eikenberry was.

James Jones is Obama's National Security Adviser and a retired Commandant of the Marine Corp. Jones seems not a fan of Counter-insurgency, thus is “stuck in 1985,” as McChrystal's staff describes him. There are two thoughts in the Armed Services about counter-insurgency, and the “old school” has a point. As one Master Gunnery Sergeant explained, one can go in, take everything out, leave, then repeat as needed. It's cheaper in troops and treasure, and there is nothing in Afghanistan to rebuild.

Joe Biden is also in the mix, but it isn't clear how much. It was said he was fascinated with counter-insurgency, but that hardly says he knows much. He may well be, however, one of those who confuse position with knowledge and wisdom. Those who think they are ordinated by God are often idiots by nature. McChrystal wonders aloud what Biden question he might get today, and how he should respond "I never know what's going to pop out until I'm up there, that's the problem," he says.

Obama's involvement shows: “It was a 10-minute photo op," says an adviser to McChrystal. "Obama clearly didn't know anything about him, who he was. Here's the guy who's going to run his f**king war, but he didn't seem very engaged. The Boss was pretty disappointed."


Seems McChrystal had less-than-complete authority to run the Afghan campaign, but would have been the major, if not sole, person blamed for its failure. With the antagonistic nature of the committee, the remote-to-unavailable access to higher authority, McChrystal used Rolling Stone as way to change the mix while telling the truth. It got him fired but not accused of whining and not being up to winning. He exposed the problems, even though he had to take the hit. Special Ops requires smarts and McChrystal is the best.

Is it true? We will learn eventually. McChyrstal has been fired from commander in Afghanistan, but not retired from the Army. They can keep him in the Army to keep him quiet, for he will no doubt reap a large-advance book deal as soon as he is available.

Watch how many of these committee members disappear after we've supposedly forgotten, or watch them become real cooperative, team players. Patraeus, I think, would have demanded that and a softening of the exit deadline--or would not have taken the job. He may well be the one guy in the room as smart as or smarter than McChrystal.






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23 July 2010: On this date, Stan McChrystal retired at the rank of full general in spite of not having sufficient time in grade to qualify. Perhaps that is the token of having to suffer war by committee with a committee ranging from incompetent to adverse. A book deal worth millions no doubt looms.

Washington Post article on McChrystals retirement.
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08.16.10: McChrystal accepts position at Yale: http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/20100816/pl_politico/41101

Because Jiminy Cricket Had No Stones

In November, 1979, Iranian “students” stormed the American embassy and took 52 diplomats and military personnel hostage. The military personnel, mostly Marines charged with protecting the embassy, were ordered not to resist. They reluctantly followed orders and were subjected to seemingly endless days of taunting.

Shortly, the Soviet embassy was also taken. A messenger from the office of the Ayatollah Khomeini visited the Soviet embassy, and the students released their captives and left the embassy. No one knows what the messenger said, but it probably noted that the Soviets were an armored force with an adjoining border with Iran (Turkmenistan in those days was the Soviet Union), and the Soviets view hostages as military captives to be rescued and revenged. Further, the messenger might have mentioned that the Soviets had long desired a warm-water port and taking diplomatic hostages was an act of war, thereby providing reason to invade Iran.

American leadership was correctly adjudged not to have sufficient stones to stand up for their personnel. Thus started a thousand Jihady cells of resistance to the West, and especially Israel and the Great Satan. What should have happened was the immediate issuance of a threat such as:

“Unless the illegally restrained diplomatic and military personnel of the United States are immediately released, the United States will begin to strike the military of Iran. Should any of the 52 hostages be harmed, the United States will eliminate the electric grid, infrastructure, and ability of Iran to export oil.”

This demand could have initially been back-channeled to the Iranian government, allowing them to comply without public embarrassment. Should they not comply, it would have been made public, then followed through. The probable positive outcome was illustrated by the release of the hostages at the very moment Reagan was being inaugurated as President.

Over the years, the results of insufficient stones has resulted in the deaths of more than 5200 compared to the 52 that would have been at risk, and deaths from inspired and financed terror continue.

Now, after the “World Apology Tour” and the policy of “Talk Loudly and Carry a Small Stick,” Iran will probably complete nuclear armament, and could well bring the 5200 dead to 52,000, or 520,000, or even conceivably 5.2M.

All this because Jiminy Cricket had no stones.

The Myth of Middle-east Peace

Although the media and government continually promote Middle-east peace, it's not going to happen. Too many pressures oppose it, and it is not the Israelis. Israelis are continually pressed to trade land for a promise of peace, but fifty years of experience show the Palestinians merely take the land and ask, “What's next?” Peace from these deals proves temporary, fleeting and disingenuous.

The Israelis get pressured to allow Palestinian self-rule, but the Israelis have offered autonomy for almost two decades now. Palestinians ignore the offers or summarily refuse. The simple reason is that anyone compromising with Israel immediately becomes targeted and killed; e.g., Sadat. Palestinian leaders apparently aren't suicidal. They send suicide bombers, but refuse to be suicidal.

Outsiders seem oblivious of the internal dynamics operating within the Palestinian community. For example, Condoleezza Rice insisted on free elections in Gaza, then got blindsided by the election of Hamas. Rice, et al, were oblivious to to two simple facts:

1) The PLO received hundreds of millions per year, which went almost totally into graft.

2) Hamas opened and operated neighborhood schools and clinics, rebuilt houses destroyed by the Israelis, and served families in daily ways such as talking to a child not exhibiting full effort in school, or even unplugging clogged plumbing.

Who would you vote for?

The UN, EU, etc. withhold funding previously going to the PLO because Hamas is a terrorist organization. Iran and Syria have stepped into the breech merely by increasing funding already being sent.

The economics are simple: Iran can smuggle in, say, a million dollars worth of arms, Hamas can fire these rockets off, the price of oil goes up a dollar per barrel, and Iran makes an additional billion and one-half from oil exports. Enviable ROI.

Any questions?

BP Payouts

BP just agreed to the $20B fund to compensate people, but are only required to fund $5B this year. They've already spent $2B on cleanup, compensation and capping, but anticipate at least the compensation will be redirected to the newly setup fund. They've suspended the $10B dividend payment for the year, so they are at the moment $3B ahead of break even.

They agreed to the $20B fund because it would stabilize their stock, which had declined from $60 to $30 per share. With over 3B shares outstanding, that was a loss of $90B already experienced, so the $5B funding required this year was a bargain, especially when the stock looked like it might going into free fall.

Share prices may well have been coming in range of the Wolfpack, the adverse investors so named by the Swedish Finance Minister, for raiding companies and now countries in financial stress. These are the guys, for example, that purchased $5/share puts (contracts to sell at $5/share) when Smith-Barney was still priced in the $50s per share. The puts would have been very cheap, then the Wolfpack drove down the price using leverage. Within a few weeks, Smith-Barney was bought out for $2 per share, giving the Wolfpack $3/share profit less their put cost (say, 5-cents per share).

The Wolfpack is now working countries such as Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy, and Ireland, but won't hesitate to gobble up BP if the opportunity became available--and it almost did.

This one oil find, to be leaking so much, under so much pressure, is probably a big one (pressure at 5000 feet is about 2250 lbs/square inch). If it were even 1B barrels, at $70 per barrel, it is worth $70B, the largest speculated cost of the cleanup and compensation.

No, BP won't be run out of money too easily, and this doesn't count later, when the well is capped, much is cleaned up, and BP requests the courts cap payouts based on how far BP had already exceeded the $75M maximum liability provided by our lawmakers in their infinite wisdom. Might explain why the CONgressional twits yelled loudly at BP: a little hope-you-don't-notice how incompetent we've been.

Boots on the Ground

On March 1, 2007, Major General George W. Weightman was relieved of duty by the Secretary of the Army because service leaders had “lost trust and confidence” of his abilities “to address needed solutions for soldier outpatient care.” Weightman was head of Walter Reed Army Hospital and had been for six months. The Washington Post, in a series of articles, apparently had to tell him and everyone else, that he had not been doing his job.

Too bad. He is a graduate of the Military Academy, so “Duty, Honor, Country” is more than a sound-good catch phrase. He was commissioned a Lieutenant of Infantry, and did a tour as such. He served with the 82nd Airborne during Persian Gulf I.

Somewhere he forgot, reality does not exist between the In and Out boxes. To command, one puts eyeballs on things, “Trust but verify,” as Mr Reagan so adroitly put it. One puts “boots on the ground.” Had the general gotten out from behind his desk and walked downstairs to check on his people and especially the people who needed him most, he could have been the hero instead of the goat.

In your life, put boots on the ground.

Silent Retribution

The North Koreans have been ascertained as the destroyers of a South Korean patrol boat, with the loss of life of 46 crew men. Now, they threaten war if any retribution is sought. Sinking another nation's ship is not an act of war?

The patrol boat was apparently sunk by a North Korean submarine. North Korea has several submarines, the most modern being several Soviet Whiskey-class subs from the 1950s.

A just retribution would be the silent disappearance of those submarines, easily accomplished by a modern Virginia-class submarine designed to operate in littoral or coastal waters as well as "blue water" of the deep ocean. Use of force is authorized under our treaty to protect South Korea as well as the state war the Chinese and North Koreans refused to terminate in their negotiations to end the Korean Conflict.

Just retribution would be to disappear all of North Korea's submarines, silently, no publicity, no embarrassment. It lets the Great Leader know that he cannot order the sinking of a South Korean ship with immunity, and, should he wish to escalate, he is out of his league. Everyone seems to know that except him, and his own are afraid to tell him. The US Submarine Service isn't.

Failure to Fire

First the shoe bomber, then the crotch bomber, now the Times Square bomber. Al Qaeda has an ignition problem, and writing about it doesn't breech security. They know, and they WILL resolve the difficulty.

We seem to be having problems of our own, and they aren't as easily solved, especially if Napolitano thinks the system is working. To be absolutely fair, she specified the system worked as designed AFTER the crotch bomber was apprehended by a Dutch passenger. Once al Qaeda solves the ignition problem, the NTSB will no doubt work well, too.

So far, we've been lucky, but luck seems a poor long-term strategy. Our incompetency is not only scary; it's embarrassing.

The Ice Next Time

Sometimes the world seems rational. Ice ages are thought to start when the Isthmus of Panama arose 2-4 million years ago either from volcanic action or the lifting of the Caribbean plate by subduction of the Cocos and South American plates. The would-be Isthmus consisted of a chain of volcanoes along a tectonic plate boundary. When they went active or the Panama plate was pushed upward, the Isthmus formed, connecting North and South America and cutting the warmer currents from Pacific to Atlantic.

Core sediments support this timing beautifully. Pre-Isthmus temperatures show a stability higher than our present levels, then slipped below and into the current ice-age oscillations.

The basic point is that this started the ice ages, which now cycle every 100K years, and they will continue until some major geological change alters it.

Further, the temperatures of this interglacial trend toward an end of this interglacial. We're cooling, not warming.

The small, red segment to the right (click the graph to enlarge it) is the "hockey-stick" warming coming out of the Little Ice Age. Not impressive in the larger perspective.

Bad things from global warming

http://www.numberwatch.co.uk/warmlist.htm

756 by last count.

Democracy Isn't Everything

Democracy is not necessarily a good thing. We experience a special form, liberal democracy, but pure democracy the ancient Greeks practiced was not. In Greek city-states, either every citizen voted, or, if too many, legislators were selected by lot as we do jury members today. They, then, had absolute power. They voted to execute Socrates simply because they didn't care for his opinions.

This happens today. In Serbia, after a free and fair election, ethnic cleansing commenced. In the French Revolution, “liberty fraternity equality” degenerated into free access for everyone to “Guillotine! Guillotine! Guillotine.” The Intelligentsia of France saw no need for constitutional impediments of checks and balances. Napoleon ended their Terror and their democracy—but not before it had claimed those who saw no need for limitations.

Hopefully this makes us appreciate our forefathers insight in building the U.S. Constitution, with its checks, balances, and protection of minority rights—especially that smallest of minorities, the individual. The seemingly arcane rules of the Senate are also geared for this. They are not inefficient as most presume, but very effective in protecting the minority, which, if you are not now, you may be as soon as the next election.

Office holders in the United States swear to protect the Constitution. Some mean it. Some know not what it means.

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Another and better try at telling what I mean.

Unconsidered Consequences

No one has died from civilian nuclear energy in the United States, unless one counts hysteria. In that case, thousands. Of course, it wasn't blamed on hysteria, but they're certainly dead because of it.

The problem did not start with a movie, but The China Syndrome sure set the stage. It opened March 16, 1979, starring Jane Fonda and Jack Lemmon, who both received Oscar nominations for best actor. The plot was cookie-cutter evil corporation operating evil technology for evil profits. Jack Lemmon dies trying to prevent a meltdown, killed by SWAT tricked by management into thinking Lemmon was attempting to destroy the world rather than save it.

Twelve days after the movie release, reactor 2 of Three Mile Island experienced a partial meltdown that released radioactive materials. It appeared the nightmare portrayed in the movie as well as the enflamed vision sold by Greeners for years, had come to pass. In the end, the average radiation dose of those within ten miles was 8 millirems (one chest x-ray) with the maximum exposure being 100 millirems (1/3 average annual natural exposure). Long-term sampling from domestic and wild animals confirms these official estimates.

Hysteria ran a muck, basically halting the expansion of civilian nuclear power in the United States. Of the plants already approved, 51 were canceled and over 300 coal-fired power generating stations have been built since. Although filtering of stack gases has improved since 1979, the estimates at the time were 100 people suffered premature death per coal-fired station per year. Today, coal-fired power plants in the United States shorten 24,000 lives per year.

Nuclear power: zero; coal: 24,000/year times 31 years approaches ¾ of a millions lives since Three Mile Island.

The lessons are simple:

Hysteria kills. Don't buy in. Disdain those who do. Get the facts.

Hollywood kills. Anyone who takes an actor's opinion for anything more important than how many cc's of silicon should go into a breast implant gives them publicity craved at the expense of real people, maybe even you and your family.

Finally, grasp the concept: Greeners kill. To fulfill their more grandiose concepts, they readily sacrifice the well being of you and your family, even unto death, and try to make you feel guilty. They sell hysteria, and hysteria kills.

A "Convenient Truth"

The "convenient truth" about climate change is that it distracts the conversation away from things like PCB and mercury contamination. Those are issues that are way too clear cut to be discussed in a public forum. In 2004 the EPA issued a mercury contamination warning against eating fish from 35% of the lake acres in the United States, 24% of the nation's river miles, 65% of the nation's contiguous coastal waters, including 92% of the Atlantic coast and 100% of the Gulf coast. The warning also included 100% of the Great Lakes and their connecting waterways. The press reaction was...nada. The next year the warning was taken down from the EPA site.

The issue that's most seriously going to influence our health is plain, old pollution. And we can't talk about it now because the nebulous dog-and-pony show of climate change has become the central focus of all environmental discussion.