Sunday, May 26, 2013

Time for the Cold?

A lot of scary noise has recently been generated about CO2 being high, with accompanying statements that we could warm to conditions not experienced since before the ice ages began 3-million years ago. Crap!

Attached is the previous interglacial warm period, the Eemian, 130,000 years ago. Please, note that CO2 rose 800 to 1300 years after the temperature, then continued for 4000-years after temperature deteriorated back into glacial cold.

The logical conclusions one can draw are that 1) CO2 did NOT cause temperature to rise, and 2) did NOT prevent it from falling. It most probably won't again.

The previous interglacial warmth was about 12,000-years long; this one has lasted 10,500 years, unless one counts the Younger Dryas as part of this one--in which case, this one has run 13,000 years, and the cold is overdue.

Saturday, May 25, 2013

Speculations on the Demise of the Neanderthals

At one time, the Neanderthals occupied all of Europe or at least all of Europe not covered by the ice and tundra of the ice age. The ice itself was as far south as the English-Scottish border, but what are the rich farmlands of France today, were tundra without forest to break the cold winds constantly blowing off the glaciers toward the south. Winter was ten months each year, with only two months of warmth that might have grown grasses for migrating herds of caribou. The northern extent of even the Neanderthal was the coniferred valleys in the mountains of southern France. Here, the Neanderthals could prey on the migrating herds as the crossed streams and passed through valleys, killing enough to keep them supplied through the long winters. Refrigeration was free.

Neanderthal was built like a short version of WWE wrestler or NFL lineman. They could bench press 350 to 500 lbs, and hunted with a spear. Brain capacity was larger than homo sapiens, but language and other capabilities are unknown. Since many have healed bone breakage, it appears they killed up close and personally rather than having standoff killing capabilities.

Their range at one time extended over the entire southern tier of Europe, extending into the Sinai connection between Africa and Asia. One author (Nicholas Wade, Before the Dawn) speculates that homo sapiens left Africa 50,000 years ago, crossing the twenty-miles wide southern narrows of the Red Sea because Neanderthals inhabited the Sinai. It does appear that homo sapiens moved east for thousands of years, even sailing to Australia, before moving north and west into Europe.


Instead of Neanderthals being an impediment, it may have been just too damned cold. This was 30,000 years before the ice age began to thaw, and about the time the ice age became harsher yet. Homo sapiens were coming out of Africa, a much warmer climate, and when given a choice between north or east, picked east as the logical choice. Instead of population pressure from homo sapiens, Neanderthals may have been overly challenged by the increasing harshness of the ice and may have already been diminished by a second factor that had almost eliminated homo sapiens, even in relatively warm Africa.

Based on variations in human or homo sapien mitochondrial DNA, the breeding population of females was reduced to around 2000, but no more than 10,000, between 70,000 and 80,000 years before present. This small remaining population was located in Africa. The only known event that could have had this effect occurring during that period was the explosion of Toba, 74,000 years ago. Toba is one of ten or so super-volcanoes on earth, the explosion left a lake 30 by 60 miles in the mountains of the island of Sumatra.  This was many thousands of times more detrimental than Mount St. Helens, and dropped the temperature during the ice age by as much as 5-degrees Centigrade. Compare this to today's most dire warnings of possible global warming of 2-degrees Centigrade.

Considering such a drastic impact on homo sapiens in Africa, could if not have an equally severe impact on Neanderthals in Europe and Homo Erectus in Asia? I think it could not fail to reduce their population and also their range. When, 25,000 years later, homo sapiens went to leave Africa, there may have no longer been Neanderthals in the Sinai.

Later during the ice age, the temperatures recovered a couple of degrees, then fell even further about 30,000 years ago. At that time, there were still Neanderthals in Europe, but, by 25,000 years ago, they had been reduced to a few cave dwellers on Gibraltar.  By 20,000 years ago, when the world began to warm and the glaciers retreat, the Neanderthal and Homo Erectus were gone. Homo sapiens began their move en mass into Europe and more northern Asia, then into North America.

Homo sapiens had at least two advantages over Neanderthals: First the atlatl gave a higher velocity, longer range spear throwing capacity--or a stand-off kill capability. That eventually evolved into the bow and arrow. Second was the sewing needle, which gave tailored clothes to better protect the person from the cold. Neanderthals did not have these, although they did have equal or superior flint knapping ability.

In spite the favorite hypothesis being that homo sapiens killed off the Neanderthals as they would later supposedly kill off the mega-mammals, a cold nine-degrees lower than the current average after the detrimental impact of Toba seems a more likely explanation.