Three Envelopes

This is a management story that applies to any level, any organization. Basically, it is a story of incompetent management, for when one observes these indications, the manager knows not what he is doing. I originally heard it as an Army story, so shall relay it in that form; but it is truly universal.

A new, young Army Captain was assuming command of a company from a retiring, experienced, "Mustang" Captain. After the usual round of takeover tasks, the two of them were relaxing in the Company Commander's office. The retiring captain told the new commander, "I have left you three numbered, sealed envelopes in your desk drawer. If things seem not to be going well, open the envelopes in sequence and apply the principle stated. Good luck." The retiring captain left and the new captain took his place behind the desk and smiled at the nice gesture of the outgoing commander.

After approximately a month, things were indeed not going well, so the Captain decided to try the envelopes, thinking, they couldn't hurt and just might help. So, he opened the desk, retrieved the first envelope and ripped it open. It read, "Blame it on your predecessor."

Well, since he was gone, why not? Things did indeed seem to go better for a couple of months, but the tact was getting old and began getting only pained, impatient looks. He decided to try the next envelops, so opened the desk, retrieved number two, and opened it. It read, "Reorganize."

Sure enough, that one really worked--for awhile. Then, things really weren't going much better, and no one wanted to hear that word, again. Thinking this last envelope had better be good, he retrieved and opened it. It read, "Get three envelopes!"

Want to bet on four?

Thirty years ago, tonight, the American public shocked the pollsters, the political pundits, and the Eastern media mouths, by a landslide election of a b-grade movie actor considered an amiable lightweight. By the time of that actor's death, his legend had reached near Churchillian proportion.

The main lesson repeated that night was the public periodically refuses to live down to political opinion that they are stupid. They throw the rascals out. They've done this about once per decade, but have now done it every two years three times in a row. Want to bet on four?

Taking on the Red Queen

NPR doesn't need someone acting stupidly leading them. Vivian Schiller, NPR's Red Queen ("Off with his head."), makes them unhappy since she has stepped in it several times in the past week:

1) Firing Juan Williams because of complaints instead of actually listening to the excerpt, probably. Complaints were from CAIR, a muslum stir-up-the-world group.

2) Firing Williams by having a subordinate do it rudely and crudely on the phone.

3) Initially stating it was for two items in his contract that others had more egregiously transgressed over the years.

4) Changing her story to having had multiple transgressions over the years, thus besmirching Williams' reputation.

5) Making the comment that Williams should have said it to his psychiatrist, thus besmirching his reputation some more.

6) Doing all this during NPR's fund raising week.

7) Doing this the week after getting over $1M from Soros.

8) Going up against Fox News where most of the good looking blonds are ivy-league caliber lawyers.

9) Inflaming the Republicans who have long wanted to cut funding to NPR, and who may well be the power in the House (where budgets are determined) after the next election. She has contributed to Republican voter anger thus increasing Republican turnout.

I really think she will be unemployed shortly, and the best reason I can think of to fire her is that NPR cannot afford to have a CEO that repeatedly acts that stupidly in ways adverse to NPR. And I doubt Williams will agree to a beer summit.

Experience enables recognizing a mistake when we make it again.

“We have undoubtedly expanded the credit structure, spending today and postponing the accounting until tomorrow. We have been guilty of the sin of inflation....Credit expansion results in business activity in full employment, in optimistic outlook and in a flood of gratulatory literature proclaiming us wiser then our predecessors. But the evidence is consistent and cumulative. The past decade has witnessed a great volume of credit inflation. Our period of prosperity in part was base on nothing more substantial than debt expansion.

“When the accounts are footed we shall have learned new lessons respecting the evils of credit inflation. This dear bought wisdom we may place beside our knowledge of the evils of monetary inflation purchased at an equally dear price. We may venture pious hope that the joint lessons will induce growth of the wisdom to foresee, caution to move less rapidly and more surely in the path of progress.” ~ Charles E. Persons, economist, 1930

“Governments never learn. Only people learn." ~ Milton Friedman, economist

“Experience is that marvelous thing that enables you to recognize a mistake when you make it again.” ~ Franklin P. Jones, reporter, humorist

Reality Is...

Reality is not necessarily what you want to hear, but reality is...

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/shootemups-are-good-for-you-say-researchers-2078435.html

In the earlier days of computing when the console games at arcades had the fastest, most capable microprocessors, Fort Knox, home of Army Armor, got the game manufacturers to create realistic games for armored combat for the EM clubs. How well it worked can be measured perhaps by Persian Gulf I: US Armor-all of 'em; Republican Guard 1.

Later, the Army invested heavily in simulation, so much so, a unit could train realistically against another armored unit located half-a-world away. It illustrates why we have not only the best equipment but the best trained, most capable warriors--ever! Kids coming in with the experience and capability of these games is perhaps the greatest underestimated reason we field the most capable military ever, from infantry to fighter pilot.

It supports the reason the United States has not only become the only remaining superpower, but something at least temporarily beyond that--a hyperpower, a world hegemony. Even more remarkable is that we use this power mostly for good, not taking and holding land and peoples.

It is reason the US is hated and loved, but please note, we are having to build fences to keep people out, not in as did the Soviets. Other countries take our example as lessons and thrive. The poverty class has been halved in Asia in the last thirty years because they mimic our organizational capability, spirit and industry. We deploy much more than jeans, McDonalds and Hollywood.

The shame is we seem embarrassed by our success and do self-detrimental things to destroy ourselves. We have grown out of truly distasteful things in our past such as slavery and treatment of native Americans, but we have also matured into perhaps the greatest thing to have happened in the history of mankind. And we don't seem to know it.

In some sense, it is not only because of the microprocessor, but in how we've used it. Gaming is what people do in graduate school and in bedrooms. It leads not only to staffing the greatest military, but the greatest economy ever-the one the rest are trying to emulate. China and India have discovered and now exploit the greatest asset they had all along--their people--the asset we've done so well at developing.

It's amazing that investing in people becomes so beneficial for the people, for the society, for the civilization, and the government.

Tis the Silly Season

Not much real news the last couple days. The Republicans campaign on "We're not Democrats." The Democrats claim "We're not Bush." That's news?

Some wacko in Florida holds hostage the major figures of the non-War on Terror up to and including the Commander-in-Chief, and they don't know what to do about it. The media fans it like kids egging on a fight in the schoolyard. We're waiting, Mr. Prez. Got a clue?

The Secretary of State claims our debt and deficit place us in a disadvantage in foreign affairs. Really? Could that be true? With China the largest holder of US debt and manipulating their currency to give them trade advantage, we beg them to improve the situation, they ignore us, and we are afraid to correct the situation by simply placing a tariff on Chinese imports because they might dump our debt--and that prevents us from acting in our own best interest?

Makes one wonder how civilization has gotten this far if our fearless leaders cannot figure out and handle this simple situations. What are they going to do with the tough ones? I wouldn't expect it to go much better, but that's just a personal opinion.

BP 1; EPA 0; Greenies 0.

"Government scientists studying the BP disaster are reporting the best possible outcome: Microbes are consuming the oil in the Gulf without depleting the oxygen in the water and creating "dead zones" where fish cannot survive." REF

EPA failed to test dispersants in the 20 years since Exxon Valdez, so restricted BP's usage by 75% because it "might" hurt something. Unknown to EPA, apparently, the Brits had tested it and approved unlimited usage outside of 10 miles of coast. After EPA restriction, the oil came ashore.

Is EPA more responsible for the damage ashore than BP?

Greenies opposed any use of dispersant because they wanted all the oil to come to the surface so it could be seen. Instead of minimizing damage to the environment, they apparently wanted to maximize it to make points. With friends like them, the environment doesn't need enemies.

The plumes of underwater oil thought so horrific turn out to be so diluted one could swim through a plume without realizing it. Seems it takes mass spectrometry or other sophisticated chemical analysis to detect the oil in the plumes. Most just failed to mention this little fact. Wonder why?

These criticisms in no way should be interpreted as exonerating BP of the shoddy engineering practices in their attempt to save money. They blew it and we all will pay for it--including BP--but not including the EPA and greenies. I just wanted to assure EPA and greenies got their full and just credit. They did so much.