Lessons from Katrina Not Learned

Katrina offered multiple opportunities to learn lessons, but many have been ignored. It is fitting to review a few on this fifth anniversary, although media coverage has made Katrina a bit nauseating. However, the BP spill proves some major lessons were not learned from either Katrina or Valdez.

One of the biggest can be called chain of command, but actually is under-empowerment. Brown, head of FEMA, took the major hit for Katrina, but responsibilities for the failures belong to his superiors. During the reorganization of government following 9/11, FEMA was made a minor department within Homeland Security. Instead of a cabinet post, head of FEMA was now several positions away from the President.

The original Secretary of Homeland Security was Tom Ridge, an ex-governor, who knew the importance of FEMA. Even so, FEMA was not seen as mainline to the primary mission of Homeland Security, and primary mission think eroded FEMA's budget, power and preparedness. When Chertoff took over, he did not have any background and it showed. Brown had submitted his resignation early in the year, but was talked into staying through hurricane season.

The biggest mistake Chertoff made was NOT appointing a Principal Federal Officer (PFO) before Katrina hit. In fact, that omission was not corrected for over a week until the appointment of Lt. Gen. Honoré, “The Ragin' Cajun.” As New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin so adroitly put it, "Now, I will tell you this -- and I give the president some credit on this -- he sent one John Wayne dude down here that can get some stuff done, and his name is Gen. Honoré. And he came off the doggone chopper, and he started cussing and people started moving. And he's getting some stuff done." The PFO had been appointed and empowered. His public exposure came when he told a reporter “Don't get stuck on stupid.” Had Honoré been appointed two days before Katrina, history would have been different.

When the BP Oil Spill was realized as serious, a PFO was appointed (April 30, 2010), but called National Incident Commander. Admiral Thad Allen got the appointment, and served in both that post and as Commandant of the Coast Guard until May 25, 2010. His empowerment was not total as indicated by response to a reporter's question about his chain of command. It was through various officials of Homeland Security before reaching the President.

What this meant is illustrated by a proposal or request made by a Louisiana Parrish. The request was routed through 14 different federal departments, any of which could kill, modify, or simply delay the request. The Louisiana request to build 40 miles of berm to protect their wet lands from oil took 14 days to wind through the bureaucracy, coming back with only 6 miles approved. Several days later, it was also announced that BP would only pay for one mile.

Later while building the berm, a single official with the federal wildlife service forbid taking fill from a spot she considered a threat to later subsidence of an island the berm was to protect. Her requirement delayed building the berm until a pipe could be laid and assembled to a dredge offshore. The official asked why they couldn't just get volunteers to place the pipe. The pipe was so large one could ride an ATV down it, thus required a crane to lift each pipe section in place, then welders to connect them to adjacent sections. An empowered bureaucrat without a clue shows the main problem was a National Incident Commander without the power to command all the departments involved to be proactive in an emergency instead of impediments as usual.

A comparison story was from the Storm of the Century in 1993. The Emergency Manager of Buncombe County requested the NC Department of Transportation (DOT) equipment clear the way for the power company trucks to reach places necessary to restore power in the county. DOT refused, claiming their primary focus was to clear main roads first, then back roads in sequence of importance. The Emergency Manager, knowing the Governor, dialed his number from memory, told him of the problem with a colorful opinion of DOT performance, and hung up. Ten minutes later, DOT called the Emergency Manager, asking which roads he wanted cleared and in what sequence.

The National Incident Commander needs that link to authority, that empowerment. When Thad Allen was required to retire by law from the Coast Guard by June 30, 2010, he negotiated the needed power to stay on as National Incident Commander. He got it and he stayed. Had he not, July 1, he could have been on all news programs with an explanation of why he had not stayed, an intolerable prospect for national authority figures. Allen's new power was expressed by 76 approved exceptions to the EPA's ban on dispersant usage.

EPA did not object too loudly because it had failed to test dispersants in the 20 years since the Valdez spill, but, when greenies screamed, forbade further usage in the BP spill because “it might harm the environment.” The Brits had tested it, and approved unlimited usage more than 10 miles offshore. Testing within ten miles of shore did not happen because the Brits would not consider usage within coastal proximity. When Allen approved usage, EPA did not howl too loudly because of its embarrassing non-performance. When they did, Allen was nice to them by explaining that all 76 incidents were to prevent oil coming ashore.

Perhaps the EPA will test dispersants now, or just ban them as an appeasement to the greenies. Will the fed learn the lesson of appointing and empowering the National Incident Commander next time? We'll have to wait until next time to see.

Flu Vaccine

That time again comes early this year. Vaccines are already available, but the arguments lag. I got mine before the rush, and feel a bit uncomfortable. To me that indicates I've been vaccinate against a strain I would have been susceptible to. Better a day or so of slight discomfort than weeks of sheer misery.

Those who no longer get the vaccine because "it made me ill" or "it gave me the flu" know not what they do. Reaction to the vaccine that expresses as symptoms indicates high susceptibility. Those symptoms will diminish in following years as immunity builds. Ceasing vaccination puts that person and those around them at risk.

Least amusing are the health-care workers who refuse to get it or bitch about having be inoculated. If they work with those whose immunities are compromised, and transmit flu which proves lethal, are they not guilty of at least manslaughter?

One is contagious for a day or so before expressing symptoms. That day they are potentially an Angel of Death.

"Bearing" With It

Many say that the heat of global warming will kill the polar bears. Here is a bear at the San Diego Zoo, scratching his tummy and quite content in his outdoor confines. I am glad no one told him the heat is lethal.

Sniffing Ethanol

The problem with corn ethanol is that creating it requires about as much energy as it generates. Were it not for government subsidies, it would fail. Instead government mandates its expansion.

Farming corn requires only 35% of the production energy total; refining 65%. In terms of EROEI (Energy Return On Energy Invested), the most efficient U.S. refinery produces 1.18 output for 1.00 input. In the attached table, Minnesota's 1.14 (EROIRG, in the last column) is the most efficient. In other words, for 7.5 gallons of ethanol produced, 6.5 gallons or their energy equivalent are consumed in growing and refining. In states such as Texas and Missouri, ethanol production requires more energy input than output. In the table, the next-to-last column (EROIPG) relates the efficiency of farm production.

Overall, the average efficiency is approximately 1.05 to 1.00, one gallon net for every 20 gallons consumed, less than 5% efficiency. Compared to gasoline, one gallon is consumed for every ten gallons produced, or a 90% efficiency. Even Canadian tar sands or oil shale outdistance ethanol, easily, and this is before considering ethanol has only 62% of the energy of gasoline.

Ethanol production stands on the government's subsidy of 51-cents per gallon, combined with a protective tariff of 54-cents per gallon. Otherwise sugar-cane ethanol from Brazil could compete with subsidized corn-based ethanol. Unsubsidized corn-base ethanol cannot compete with its own costs of production, and this doesn't consider soil or aquifer depletion. It's a boondoggle keeping the price of corn up, bio-refiners in business, Midwestern congressmen in office, and food prices higher the world over.

Ethanol produced in oak barrels, by comparison, provides profits to its producers, $16 per gallon taxes to the Federal government, 6-10% sales tax to state governments, products for export, and contributes to the pursuit of happiness for its consumers.

An End to Nuclear Arms? Doubt it!

The Russian Federation sits above China. Russia has a population of 141 million, down from 148 million when the Soviet Union dissolved. The majority of that population resides in the European areas near Moscow and St. Petersburg; few in the Asian areas where the majority of Russia's plentiful natural resources are.

Russia is the richest country in the world in terms of natural resources. After the Soviet Union went bankrupt, Russia invited many international corporations in to develop its natural resources with revenue sharing as the contingent reward. It worked well. Twenty years later, Russia is the world's second-largest exporter of oil and natural gas and the seventh-largest holder of American debt.

China is the most populous country in the world with 1.3 billion people and could well use the natural resources to its north. Without Russia's nuclear arms, how long would China take to acquire those natural resources?

Russia is not suicidal.

McChrystal Nacht?

General Stan McChrystal was published in Rolling Stone, then fired for insubordination. For days, media has mused about how he could be so stupid. Was he? Note, criticism states he and his staff should not have said what they said, at least in front of a reporter, but not that the statements weren't true.

Media exposed a couple of factors, but haven't realized what they've exposed:

1) the President is disengaged, and
2) the war is being run by committee!

One doesn't run a war by committee, at least, if one wants to win. Further, this committee is staffed by antagonists, if not adversaries. These were the people criticized by McChrystal's staff.

Richard Holbrooke, Special Envoy to Afghanistan and Pakistan, is one of Obama's Czars, meaning he was not confirmed by the Senate as ambassadors are required to be. Both Afghanistan and Pakistan have official ambassadors who perform their full functions, thus leaving Holbrooke without a real job (acting like “a wounded animal” as McChrystal's staff phrased it) and who is reduced to writing “another memo from Holbrooke” as McChrystal himself phrased it.

Ambassador to Afghanistan is Karl Eikenberry, who was appointed by Obama while Eikenberry was still a serving Lt. General in the Army. He is a full member of the committee, but hardly a team player—or much of an ambassador. He has frustrated actions by publicly criticizing Karsai and writing a back-channel memo disagreeing with McChrystal when McChrystal was attempting to have the surge approved. Someone unappreciative of Eikenberry's “unteamly” ethics leaked the memo, so everyone would know who and what Eikenberry was.

James Jones is Obama's National Security Adviser and a retired Commandant of the Marine Corp. Jones seems not a fan of Counter-insurgency, thus is “stuck in 1985,” as McChrystal's staff describes him. There are two thoughts in the Armed Services about counter-insurgency, and the “old school” has a point. As one Master Gunnery Sergeant explained, one can go in, take everything out, leave, then repeat as needed. It's cheaper in troops and treasure, and there is nothing in Afghanistan to rebuild.

Joe Biden is also in the mix, but it isn't clear how much. It was said he was fascinated with counter-insurgency, but that hardly says he knows much. He may well be, however, one of those who confuse position with knowledge and wisdom. Those who think they are ordinated by God are often idiots by nature. McChrystal wonders aloud what Biden question he might get today, and how he should respond "I never know what's going to pop out until I'm up there, that's the problem," he says.

Obama's involvement shows: “It was a 10-minute photo op," says an adviser to McChrystal. "Obama clearly didn't know anything about him, who he was. Here's the guy who's going to run his f**king war, but he didn't seem very engaged. The Boss was pretty disappointed."


Seems McChrystal had less-than-complete authority to run the Afghan campaign, but would have been the major, if not sole, person blamed for its failure. With the antagonistic nature of the committee, the remote-to-unavailable access to higher authority, McChrystal used Rolling Stone as way to change the mix while telling the truth. It got him fired but not accused of whining and not being up to winning. He exposed the problems, even though he had to take the hit. Special Ops requires smarts and McChrystal is the best.

Is it true? We will learn eventually. McChyrstal has been fired from commander in Afghanistan, but not retired from the Army. They can keep him in the Army to keep him quiet, for he will no doubt reap a large-advance book deal as soon as he is available.

Watch how many of these committee members disappear after we've supposedly forgotten, or watch them become real cooperative, team players. Patraeus, I think, would have demanded that and a softening of the exit deadline--or would not have taken the job. He may well be the one guy in the room as smart as or smarter than McChrystal.






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23 July 2010: On this date, Stan McChrystal retired at the rank of full general in spite of not having sufficient time in grade to qualify. Perhaps that is the token of having to suffer war by committee with a committee ranging from incompetent to adverse. A book deal worth millions no doubt looms.

Washington Post article on McChrystals retirement.
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08.16.10: McChrystal accepts position at Yale: http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/20100816/pl_politico/41101

Because Jiminy Cricket Had No Stones

In November, 1979, Iranian “students” stormed the American embassy and took 52 diplomats and military personnel hostage. The military personnel, mostly Marines charged with protecting the embassy, were ordered not to resist. They reluctantly followed orders and were subjected to seemingly endless days of taunting.

Shortly, the Soviet embassy was also taken. A messenger from the office of the Ayatollah Khomeini visited the Soviet embassy, and the students released their captives and left the embassy. No one knows what the messenger said, but it probably noted that the Soviets were an armored force with an adjoining border with Iran (Turkmenistan in those days was the Soviet Union), and the Soviets view hostages as military captives to be rescued and revenged. Further, the messenger might have mentioned that the Soviets had long desired a warm-water port and taking diplomatic hostages was an act of war, thereby providing reason to invade Iran.

American leadership was correctly adjudged not to have sufficient stones to stand up for their personnel. Thus started a thousand Jihady cells of resistance to the West, and especially Israel and the Great Satan. What should have happened was the immediate issuance of a threat such as:

“Unless the illegally restrained diplomatic and military personnel of the United States are immediately released, the United States will begin to strike the military of Iran. Should any of the 52 hostages be harmed, the United States will eliminate the electric grid, infrastructure, and ability of Iran to export oil.”

This demand could have initially been back-channeled to the Iranian government, allowing them to comply without public embarrassment. Should they not comply, it would have been made public, then followed through. The probable positive outcome was illustrated by the release of the hostages at the very moment Reagan was being inaugurated as President.

Over the years, the results of insufficient stones has resulted in the deaths of more than 5200 compared to the 52 that would have been at risk, and deaths from inspired and financed terror continue.

Now, after the “World Apology Tour” and the policy of “Talk Loudly and Carry a Small Stick,” Iran will probably complete nuclear armament, and could well bring the 5200 dead to 52,000, or 520,000, or even conceivably 5.2M.

All this because Jiminy Cricket had no stones.